A horrifying chart…
Brody: You’re gonna need a bigger boat.
From Business week:
Private sector job growth was almost non-existent over the past ten years. Take a look at this horrifying chart:
Peter Schiff: The whole service sector economy has to go away…
We have assumed, for some time now, that employment in the service sector was doomed in this crisis. We just came across this quote from Peter Schiff from 2007 which, for the first time, put into words what we have been awkwardly trying to explain on this blog to anyone who would happen by and read it.
Peter Schiff (2007):
December’s larger than expected jump in non-farm payrolls is predictably being touted as evidence of a more vibrant U.S. economy. Unfortunately, the data does not support this conclusion. The bloated service sector added 178,000 jobs, while manufacturing shed another 12,000 jobs. What this means is that 178,000 more workers will be consuming goods while 12,000 fewer will be making them. The result will be larger trade deficits that merely compound already stretched global imbalances and exacerbate America’s inevitable day of reckoning.
A service sector can only exist so long as it is supported by a vibrant manufacturing sector. The reason is simple. People employed in the service sector consume goods but do not actually produce any of them. Therefore they must rely on others, who presumably benefit from their services, to produce goods in their stead.
As an example, suppose that ten castaways were marooned on an island. What if on the day they washed up on shore they all decided to assume the following jobs; lawyer, accountant, banker, economist, actor, philosopher, astrologer, beautician, teacher, and nurse. How long do you suppose they would all remain alive without food, water, or shelter? Someone has to provide those things or everyone will perish.
In modern America, the goods shortfall is being made up by foreigner producers, who only derive a marginal benefit from the American service sector. In December, 43,000 new jobs were added in the education and health care sectors and 50,000 were added in business and professional services. What are all of these people going to export in order to pay for all the imported goods their paychecks will permit them to consume? Is there really that big a demand for American legal services in China? Do the Japanese really need our accounting advice? Do Saudi Arabian children benefit from pre-schools in America? How many sick Germans will seek treatment in American hospitals?
The fact that the U.S dollar rose in response to today’s jobs data is further evidence of how widespread this misunderstanding has become. Currency traders bid up the dollar because they assume a stronger jobs market will engender higher interest rates, which is perceived as dollar bullish. However, they ignore the longer term implications of the larger trade deficits that those service jobs will ultimately produce, which is decisively dollar bearish.
For now, all these excess dollars are being absorbed by foreign central banks precisely because foreign private consumers have little use for them. Today’s jobs data means that the resolve of foreign governments to continue accumulating additional dollar reserves will be that much harder to maintain.
Two years later, Schiff’s views on this subject have not changed, although his prescription may be unlikely. The following is a summary of his talking points from a recent speech:
The U.S. Government is interfering with the free market forces trying to fix the economy. We lived in a phony “bubble” economy. The Government is trying to reflate the bubble. Americans are trying to rebuild their balance sheets and save to build wealth. As any drug addict knows if you stop using drugs you will go through withdrawal. Government is making the situation worse. We don’t need any more stimulus, we are suffering from the stimulus we have already been given. Alan Greenspan and Federal Reserve got everyone drunk on easy credit.
Government has created moral hazard, i.e. Fannie and Freddie. The housing bubble was Fed and nurtured by the government. America is broke and our creditors are acknowledging that. What is going on in the global economy will not last and is beneficial to the rest of the world. Foreign nations will retool factories and create products for themselves. Our ride on the global gravy train has come to the end. The whole service sector economy has to go away. If companies are not profitable they need to go out of business. Nobody talks about the productive jobs the Government destroys by saving jobs at GM or AIG. The damage this time around can be far greater than Hoover and Roosevelt created during the Depression. Hoover attempted to bail out the economy and business, Roosevelt only followed his failed policies on a much larger scale. Bush has followed bailout policies like Hoover, now Obama’s is following Bush’s failed policies only on a much larger scale.
Japan was in a good position when they busted, we are in the opposite position. We can’t solve a crisis that is the made of borrowing and spending by more borrowing and spending. Our creditors will stop lending to us. Inflation is going to run out of control. Ultimately that inflation is going to cause prices to go through the roof. We will not be able to purchase items to go on store shelves. This not a major collapse, it is a restructuring. The decoupling concept is here, but the US is not the engine it is the caboose.
You need to own assets in countries where economies will thrive and prosper like Asia, and stay away from US assets. This is the beginning of an inflationary depression.
Stop digging…
Well known adage: When you find yourself in a hole stop digging.
Yves Smith has posted an interesting tidbit on how the bailout of Wall Street may (will?) simply divert needed capital from useful productive purposes – which feed, clothe, house us all – to buying toxic assets in order to rescue the friends of Washington.
It is amazing given the dire warnings of the economic impact of the credit crunch on ordinary American, that the governement should choose just this time to make it worse by shoveling what little credit is available to bail out its dependents in the very biggest banks.
Oh, no it isn’t – I forgot.
It was already clear, if Washington takes $700 billion dollars to bailout Wall Street investment bankers, fewer options would be left for a fiscal stimulus package in a slowing economy with rising unemployment?
But, according to this reading the situation will be far worse than that:
When money is tight, however, as it is likely to be for some time, withdrawing $700bn from the funding pool to support failed, past investments has a more serious effect on the economy, because capital flows are restricted by market illiquidity and investor trepidation. If that reduces asset prices, it exposes more loans to losses. If it prevents good investments by crowding them out of any chance of getting funding, it reduces economic activity. Either way, it makes the economy less efficient.
So whatever economic dislocation is looming on the horizon, the bailout plan which will be passed tonight by the Congress – having been larded with enough pork to keep a family of 100 million well fed for a year – will actually make things worse by generating more paper losses and cutting off credit to the very sectors of the real economy the Greek chorus of the plan’s supporters claim will be saved, and make it more difficult to stimulate the economy.
All the traditional tools available to government having been gobbled up in the circus of idiots, the only hope for a smooth, controlled collapse of the sixty year old debt bubble is to immediately reduce the work week to 16 hours, eliminate all taxes on working families, and abrogate all debts foreign and domestic – immediate action is required, because once this thing begins to unravel, economic collapse will follow swiftly.
Too failed to bail…
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From Associated Press:
President Barack Obama issued a withering critique Thursday of Wall Street corporate behavior, calling it “the height of irresponsibility” for employees to be paid more than $18 billion in bonuses last year while their crumbling financial sector received a bailout from taxpayers. “It is shameful,” Obama said from the Oval Office. “And part of what we’re going to need is for the folks on Wall Street who are asking for help to show some restraint, and show some discipline, and show some sense of responsibility.”
The president’s comments, made with new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at his side, came in swift response to a report that employees of the New York financial world garnered an estimated $18.4 billion in bonuses last year. The figure, from the New York state comptroller, drew prominent news coverage.
Shameful.
Outrageous.
Irresponsible.
A sum, we are told, by Jonathan Alter tonight on MSNBC‘s Countdown, that is twice the amount which will be spent on the entire national mass transit system in Barack’s stimulus package.
By way of contrast: The Moron stood silent as contractor built showers for soldiers in Iraq electrocuted them.
Service men who were risking their lives for his Crusade.
Not a word, not a peep.
Is there any wonder that this man, Barack, evokes such adoration among his supporters?
One thing we wish to point out, however, since we on this blog see it as our mission to to strip you of every illusion regarding Washington: We have, so far given $350 billion to these same bankers, and Barack has requested $350 billion more.
That these bankers, in turn, consider themselves so apart from the disaster they helped impose on society that they lavish themselves with bonuses, as their banks spiral across the event horizon of collapse, is simply a function of the fact that this $700 billion is being spent to salvage the assets of the very wealthiest in our society – to prevent those assets from deflating in price.
Washington has decided these banks are too big to fail, and their billionaire and institutional owners are too rich to be poor.
The arrogance shown here, and rightly denounced by the Messiah, hangs on the delusion among the wealthiest tenth of one percent of our human family that they are irreplaceable.
Sooner or later Barack will have to confront this delusion, or submit to it.