Archive for January 12, 2010

“Something is just not right…”

January 12, 2010 Leave a comment

Unemployment: BLS (red) versus EconomPic methods

According to EconomPic, which makes it a habit to document such unpleasant things, the current unemployment rate – after accounting for those who have dropped out of the labor force – now stands at 11.7 percent versus the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official unemployment figure of ten percent.

Apparently, over the past six months, 1.8 million people hit the lottery and quit looking for work, according to the folks at the BLS. So they are not being counted in the unemployment stats.

The blog author(s) note that the two methods, when looking at the historical data seem to follow a familiar pattern: The EconomPic method tends to overstate how far unemployment fell in the subsequent recovery from a recession, but agrees, more or less, with the BLS on the peak.

They note that the data in this recession is not following that pattern, “indicating that something is just not right.”

Full story here